How I Build Prop Leans

Every lean shared on Proplicity follows the same process:

First, I establish the expected role and minutes. Minutes represent opportunity, and opportunity is everything.

Next, I evaluate the matchup and pace. This means analyzing who the player is facing, how fast the game is projected to play, and identifying any advantages or disadvantages.

Then, I review usage trends. Is the player’s involvement stable, increasing, or quietly declining?

After that, I check injury and rotation news. Small lineup changes can often lead to significant prop mispricings.

Finally, I consider the market context—where the line opened, how it has moved, and whether public narratives are influencing the price.

If multiple signals align, it becomes a lean. If they don’t, it results in a pass.

The goal isn’t to predict outcomes perfectly; rather, it’s to clarify uncertainty.